کد خبر: 572883
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نسخه چاپی

Collapse and outbreak of civil war waiting for Israeli regime

The continuation of the consequences of the Gaza war, military confrontation with Iran, insecurity on the northern front, disputes over the performance of Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet, and the increase in military costs have raised serious questions about Zionist regime's ability to simultaneously manage internal and external crises.

The Daily Telegraph newspaper, also referring to the social and political fissures in occupied Palestine, has raised the possibility of intensified internal instability.

Political Fissure; A Crisis Beyond the Dispute Over Netanyahu

One of Israel's most important challenges is the deep disagreements among political and social currents over the nature of governance, security policies, and the manner of running the occupied territories. The dispute between religious and secular parties, the controversy over judicial reforms, the issue of military service for Orthodox Jews, and criticisms of the cabinet's performance regarding the attack of October 7, 2023, are among the factors that have made political cohesion difficult.

According to a report by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in June 2026, only 25 percent of respondents had high trust in the cabinet; in contrast, 73 percent rated their level of trust as low. Also, high trust in Benjamin Netanyahu was reported at 31 percent and low trust in him at 67 percent. These figures indicate a considerable gap between the cabinet and parts of Israeli society; although they alone cannot be considered a definitive sign of political collapse.

Under such circumstances, the election result and the manner of forming parliamentary coalitions can affect the intensity of disputes. Netanyahu's competition with opponents, including the political current associated with Gadi Eisenkot, is not merely a competition over seats of power; rather, it also includes disagreement over political accountability, the future of the governance structure, and security priorities.

The Costs of War; Pressure on Israel's Economy

The economic consequences of the war are another important axis of this crisis. According to the annual report of the Bank of Israel, the financial cost of the war that began in October 2023 has been estimated at about 350 billion shekels for the years 2023 to 2026; a figure that does not include the decisions and costs related to military operations against Iran from late February 2026.

Also, Israel's public debt-to-GDP ratio rose from about 60.5 percent at the beginning of 2023 to 68.5 percent at the end of 2025. The Bank of Israel has identified military costs, civilian expenditures related to the war, and their financing through debt as important factors of pressure on the regime's financial situation.

These figures show that even if economic growth is maintained, the continuation of conflicts can restrict the regime's financial resources and increase the opportunity cost of investment in construction, education, and social sectors. However, Israel's economy still has capacities for adaptation, and one cannot speak of economic collapse merely on the basis of rising debt.

The Gaza War and the Northern Front; The Issue of Realizing Strategic Objectives

One of the fundamental questions about Israel's military performance is the possible gap between operational achievements and the realization of the political objectives of the war. Extensive military attacks and the destruction of Gaza's infrastructure have imposed a heavy human cost on the Palestinians; but assessing the strategic success of such operations is not possible merely by the extent of destruction or the number of attacks.

The continuation of the security issue, the future of Gaza's administration, and the dispute over the fate of prisoners and captives are among the issues that are important in evaluating the performance of the Israeli cabinet. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, in an analysis in August 2025, had also referred to the difficulty of the Netanyahu cabinet in converting military achievements into a sustainable political result. At the same time, this institute has also spoken of Israel's military achievements against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

On the northern front as well, the return of residents of evacuated areas and the rebuilding of economic activities have become an important issue. Reports published in October 2026 about Kiryat Shmona indicate continued security concerns, damaged economic activities, and the dissatisfaction of part of the residents. This situation shows that military operations alone do not necessarily lead to the sustainable return of security and normal life.

Confrontation with Iran; A Test of the Cost and Benefit of the Military Strategy

Direct war with Iran has been one of the Zionist regime's most important security challenges in 2026. American and Israeli attacks on Iran from February 28 were accompanied by Iran's retaliatory attacks and the expansion of the scope of war in the region. A report by the US Congressional Research Service in September 2026 shows that this war, in addition to the Israeli regime and Iran, has also affected American military bases, regional infrastructure, and commercial shipping.

According to the same report, the April ceasefire and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding could not lead to a sustainable agreement, and the conflicts resumed afterward. This process indicates the difficulty of converting military pressure into sustainable political and security arrangements.

From a strategic perspective, the main issue for Israel is not only the extent of damage inflicted on the opposing side; rather, the ability to achieve the declared objectives, maintain deterrence, manage reciprocal attacks, and prevent the expansion of war is also important. In contrast, Iran has also faced heavy human, economic, and infrastructural costs; therefore, assessing this confrontation without taking into account the costs of both sides provides an incomplete picture.

Overall, economic pressures, political disputes, the consequences of the Gaza war, insecurity on the northern front, and the costs of confrontation with Iran have placed a set of interconnected challenges before Israel. The simultaneous intensification of these pressures can reduce the Israeli regime's room for maneuver, deepen social fissures, and provide the ground for new political crises.

MNA

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